Analysis
What regime-detection models can and cannot do
Hidden Markov and clustering models summarize states that already happened — timely labeling of live regimes is the hard, partly unsolved part.
Author
Sofia Lindqvist
Independent editorial contributor covering investment strategy and financial modeling for VUGA Network publications.
Articles by Sofia Lindqvist
Economy
What do consumer confidence surveys actually measure?
Two surveys, different questions and timing — and a documented gap between sentiment and spending that is the finding, not a flaw.
Analysis
Feature importance is not causation: the mixer problem
Importance scores measure a model's reliance on inputs under correlations — a variable your model ranks first may only be standing in for the real driver.
Investing
Dividend yield or total return: which number answers your question?
The two statistics differ by construction — one prices income against price, the other measures everything — and confusing them misprices risk.
Analysis
What does it mean for a probability forecast to be calibrated?
Calibration is the match between stated probabilities and observed frequencies — measurable with Brier scores and reliability diagrams, and distinct from…