Economy
How are Fed rate probabilities priced and read?
The market's implied odds come from futures prices via an assumptions list — most prominently a fixed meeting-day risk-free rate — and the assumptions move the…
Author
Rekha Patel
Independent editorial contributor covering small business, digital publishing, automation and technology accountability for VUGA Network publications.
Articles by Rekha Patel
Economy
What does a PMI diffusion index actually measure?
Breadth, not magnitude — a diffusion index counts how many firms report improvement, which is why 50 is a line, not a level.
Economy
What does a yield curve inversion actually signal?
Every U.S. recession since the 1970s was preceded by an inversion — with lags of months to years and documented false positives elsewhere.
Economy
How is the CPI actually measured?
A fixed basket, chained updating, and a substitution correction — the CPI's machinery, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics documents it.
Economy
How do GDP nowcasting models work?
Nowcasts combine early-release data into a current-quarter estimate before the official number exists — with published error rates worth reading.