Economy
What do consumer confidence surveys actually measure?
Two surveys, different questions and timing — and a documented gap between sentiment and spending that is the finding, not a flaw.
Economy: Growth, Prices and Jobs
Economy coverage from UZU NEWS.
Economy
Why economic data keeps getting revised after release
Between seasonal adjustment, sample completion and annual benchmarking, the first print is by design an estimate of an estimate.
Economy
How are Fed rate probabilities priced and read?
The market's implied odds come from futures prices via an assumptions list — most prominently a fixed meeting-day risk-free rate — and the assumptions move the…
Economy
What does a PMI diffusion index actually measure?
Breadth, not magnitude — a diffusion index counts how many firms report improvement, which is why 50 is a line, not a level.
Economy
Why the unemployment rate and payrolls can tell opposite stories
One number comes from a survey of households, the other from a survey of establishments — different frames, different failure modes.